The evolving landscape of prospect evaluation
Seven years after Craig Edwards published a landmark study on prospect valuation, a new analysis picks up the thread, updating the methodology to reflect recent upheavals in Major League Baseball.
The 2020 season was truncated by the pandemic, minor league franchises were reshaped, and a fresh collective bargaining agreement reshaped player development incentives. Each of these shifts is woven into the revised model.
Researchers now rely on three core metrics — surplus value, expected Wins Above Replacement, and star odds — to translate raw talent into a dollar figure. Surplus value captures the difference between a player’s projected earnings and his contract cost, while expected WAR translates playing-time forecasts into a win contribution. Star odds assign a probability of future superstar status.
The study finds that prospects graded at 70 or 65 on the Future Value scale command the highest monetary returns, and that hitters in those tiers tend to outvalue pitchers of identical grade. It also uncovers a sizable pool of undervalued talent beyond the traditional Top 100 rankings.
Inflation and the hidden billions
When adjusted for inflation, the estimated aggregate value of current minor‑league players falls between $10.5 billion and $13.75 billion. The methodology stretches back a decade, approximating value over long horizons and incorporating the rising cost of a free‑agent win.
The new rankings differ from Craig Edwards’ 2019 model, reflecting both the statistical adjustments and the broader economic context. For teams, the insight is clear: investing in the right prospect can yield returns that dwarf traditional free‑agent spending.