The latest analytics from the baseball community have highlighted a subtle but telling trend: a sustained dip in the Location+ statistic often precedes physical setbacks for starting pitchers.
Over the past month, sixteen arms have seen their Location+ numbers tumble, including notable names such as Luinder Avila, Davis Martin, and Jacob deGrom. While some of these pitchers still post respectable ERAs, the underlying indicators suggest a higher probability of injury or performance regression.
Take, for example, Connelly Early, who landed on the injured list with elbow inflammation shortly after his Location+ began to slide. Similarly, Shane Drohan’s transition to the rotation was accompanied by an unexpected downturn in his location metrics, raising questions about his durability.
Other cases illustrate the nuance. Cam Schlittler’s recent performance shows a widening gap between his raw ERA and the more predictive estimators, while Sean Burke’s ERA remains in line with his estimators despite a falling Location+ reading.
What This Means for Your Lineup
For most fantasy leagues, the decision boils down to a simple question: does the pitcher’s recent performance align with his underlying metrics? If the answer is no, it may be time to explore trade options or bench the player until stability returns.
The broader implication extends beyond individual rosters; it reflects a shifting paradigm in how baseball teams and analysts evaluate pitcher health, emphasizing predictive analytics over surface‑level results.