Fantasy football managers know that the Average Draft Position, or ADP, is the compass that points toward value in any draft. Yet the metric can also be a trap when it inflates the perceived worth of certain players.
The Injury Factor
Take running back Bucky Irving, who has been climbing the CBS ADP despite a 2025 season marred by injury and limited touches. The same caution applies to Chuba Hubbard, whose workload in Carolina could evaporate once Jonathon Brooks returns from his own set of ailments.
Wide receiver Michael Wilson presents another cautionary tale; his target share may shrink once Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride both see increased snaps, potentially diluting his fantasy upside.
Even elite pass catchers are not immune. Justin Jefferson’s target percentage could dip with Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson competing for looks, while Trey McBride’s production might wobble under a new offensive coordinator and a reduced pass volume.
Backfield dynamics also create bust scenarios. Alvin Kamara’s presence on the New Orleans Saints roster could squeeze Derick Etienne’s role, and Tony Pollard’s limited involvement in the passing game makes his upside more fragile.
Other names on the radar include Duke Johnson, whose role in the passing game is uncertain, and Mike Evans, whose age and injury history raise questions about his durability in the 49ers’ high‑powered offense.
The lesson for draft day is clear: ADP should be a starting point, not a conclusion. Scrutinizing injury histories, committee structures, and shifts in target share can reveal hidden risks before they materialize.