Over the past decade the NFL has hovered around a narrow band of scoring, rarely breaking the 22‑point ceiling and never climbing far above 24. That stability masks a deeper shift in how the game is being played.
The Numbers Behind the Scoring Plateau
What fans are noticing is a parallel decline in the raw fantasy output that underpins weekly lineups. In three of the last four seasons the league has produced fewer than 70 total fantasy points per game, and the average number of plays per contest has slipped below 62, the lowest figure recorded by Trumedia in its 26‑year database. At the same time, teams are averaging just 326.6 yards per game, the smallest output in nearly two decades.
Coaches have responded by leaning more heavily on the run, a pattern not seen since the 2008 season, while defensive schemes featuring two‑high safety looks have become commonplace, limiting the space for deep passes. Consequently, the average depth of target has fallen below eight yards, compressing the field and curbing explosive play potential.
Exploiting the Tight End Surge
Amid this environment, a subtle but significant change is taking place in the way offenses distribute the ball. Tight ends are now accounting for a larger share of targets, especially in run‑heavy, short‑yardage situations where they serve as reliable safety valves. The trend has turned players such as Ricky Pearsall, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid and Dallas Goedert into unexpected flex‑worthy options.
Fantasy managers who have traditionally relegated tight ends to the bench are now experimenting with them in flex spots, capitalizing on the increased target share and the scarcity of high‑scoring alternatives. Early adopters report modest but consistent gains, suggesting that the strategy could become a staple of weekly roster construction.
The broader implication is that the conventional wisdom about which positions dominate fantasy scoring is being rewritten. As scoring remains flat and play volume contracts, the players who can secure a steady stream of short‑range targets are emerging as the new playmakers, reshaping both game strategy and roster building.