A Data‑Driven Preview of the 2026 Big 12 Season
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has become a touchstone for analysts seeking to forecast college‑football outcomes, and the latest projections paint an optimistic picture for two Big 12 contenders.
BYU enters the 2026 campaign with a 13.1 FPI rating, positioning the Cougars at No. 20 nationally and second within the conference. The model assigns them a 16.5 percent chance of capturing the Big 12 title, a 25.7 percent likelihood of reaching the College Football Playoff, and a 2.2 percent shot at the national championship game.
Utah, sitting at No. 31 nationally with an 8.5 FPI score, is projected to finish third in the league. The Utes enjoy an 83.7 percent chance of bowl eligibility and a 5.9 percent probability of winning the conference, underscoring the model’s confidence in their consistency.
Key Non‑Conference Matchups
Both programs face challenging out‑of‑conference tests that could shape their trajectories. BYU’s highest‑rated non‑conference opponent is Notre Dame, currently ranked No. 3 in the FPI, while Utah’s toughest non‑conference slate includes Arkansas, positioned at No. 47.
Additional scheduled opponents such as Texas Tech and other regional rivals add depth to the slate, offering both teams opportunities to bolster résumé metrics before conference play reaches its climax.
The strength‑of‑schedule rankings, with BYU at 55th and Utah at 63rd, reflect a balanced mix of competition that could influence final FPI adjustments as the season unfolds.