A History of Upsets
Every August, analysts publish a slate of preseason rankings that promise to forecast the upcoming drama of the Big 12, yet the data tells a different story. Over the past few seasons, teams that were projected to finish near the bottom have surged to championship contention, while favorites have stumbled early and often.
TCU provides a textbook example. In 2024 the Horned Frogs were slotted at tenth in the conference poll, a position that seemed to relegate them to the lower tier. Instead, they climbed to a fifth‑place finish, a jump that caught the attention of writer Shehan Jeyarajah, who highlighted the program’s resilience under head coach Sonny Dykes.
The surprise run was fueled not only by strategic adjustments but also by standout performances such as that of Travis Hunter, whose dual‑threat impact at Colorado added a new layer of excitement. Arizona State, which entered the same season as the unanimous last‑place pick, ultimately hoisted the Big 12 trophy, a shock that reverberated through the league and reminded observers that any team can rewrite the script.
A year later, predictions shifted but still proved unreliable. Forecasts had placed TCU fourth for 2025, only to see the team slip to seventh, while Kansas State, touted as a top‑three contender, fell to tenth. The mismatches were not lost on quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who spoke openly about the need for his Colorado squad to embrace uncertainty.
The Road Ahead
Looking ahead to 2026, the preseason poll now lists TCU sixth, but the conversation already revolves around new head coaches entering the league and the fresh narratives they might spark. The countdown to the season kickoff has begun, and the Horned Frogs are eager to prove the numbers wrong once again.
What remains clear is that the Big 12 thrives on parity, a condition that keeps fans, analysts, and broadcasters alike glued to every snap. With networks such as CBS Sports, ESPN, and KillerFrogs.com continuing to cover the action, the upcoming months promise more twists, breakout performances, and the kind of unpredictability that defines the conference.