The Metric Behind the Numbers
The relationship between Pitching+ and earned run average has become a cornerstone of modern pitching analysis, especially for starters who log at least 100 innings over a multi‑year span. From 2021 through 2025 the metric posted a –0.506 correlation with ERA, indicating that a rise in Pitching+ generally accompanies a drop in ERA, and vice versa.
Aaron Civale exemplifies the upside of the trend. His Pitching+ has climbed 17 points this season, a rise fueled primarily by a career‑best Location+ that has tightened his command and reduced the number of hittable pitches.
Roki Sasaki, the young right‑hander from Japan, has seen his Pitching+ surge thanks to an 11‑point jump in Stuff+, reflecting a sharper, more effective pitch mix that has generated more swings and misses.
Similarly, Emerson Hancock and Will Warren have each added roughly 16 points to their Pitching+ scores. Hancock’s improvement stems from gains in both Stuff+ and Location+, while Warren’s ascent is rooted in parallel advances in those same categories. Cam Schlittler’s 10‑point gain is almost entirely attributable to a 10‑point rise in Location+, and Drew Rasmussen’s spike coincides with the highest Location+ of his career, underscoring the value of precise command.
The Other Side of the Ledger
The downside of the correlation is equally instructive. Pitchers such as Zebby Matthews have seen their Pitching+ tumble by 23 points, a decline driven by sharp drops in both Stuff+ and Location+. Carlos Rodón’s 17‑point dip is anchored by a steep fall in Location+, while Cole Ragans has lost 16 points, including a 15‑point slide in Location+. Veteran Max Scherzer’s 15‑point drop mirrors this pattern, with Location+ slipping at the same time his overall effectiveness wanes. Jack Flaherty’s 14‑point decrease is accompanied by a higher walk rate, further eroding his ERA, and Bailey Ober’s 13‑point slide is linked to the weakest Stuff+ of his career. International signees Tomoyuki Sugano and Reid Detmers also feel the pressure; Sugano’s Pitching+ has slipped 12 points amid a low strikeout rate and subpar SIERA and xERA, while Detmers, despite holding onto Location+ gains, still registers a 12‑point dip in Pitching+. Connelly Early’s decline is traced to a Location+ drop, and Michael King’s metric sits at its lowest since 2020, reflecting reductions in both Stuff+ and Location+.
What emerges from the data is a clear message: pitchers who can elevate their Location+ while maintaining or improving Stuff+ are the ones most likely to outperform their ERA expectations, whereas those who lose command or pitch effectiveness see their Pitching+ — and consequently their ERA — slide in lockstep. The 2026 season thus reinforces the metric’s predictive power, offering both teams and analysts a roadmap for evaluating future performance.