A Bold Outlook for the Hoosiers
Indiana University will begin its 2026 campaign on September 5 at home in Memorial Stadium, taking on North Texas in the season opener. The game serves as the first test of a schedule that the program hopes will culminate in another undefeated regular season.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Hoosiers are projected to finish the year 11‑1, with the only anticipated stumble coming against Ohio State. The model also places Indiana at No. 6 in the FPI rankings for the upcoming season, a steep rise from the No. 26 preseason position they held a year ago.
Projected Path to the Title
The confidence in the team’s depth is reflected in the win probabilities attached to each opponent. The algorithm gives the Hoosiers a 98.2% chance to defeat North Texas, a 99% chance against Howard, a 97.6% chance versus Western Kentucky, a 95% chance against Northwestern, and a 92.9% chance to beat Rutgers. Even the more competitive contests, such as the predicted 65.5% likelihood of beating Michigan, are viewed as winnable for Indiana.
The narrative also recalls the previous season, when the Hoosiers completed a perfect 12‑0 regular campaign and added four postseason victories to capture the national championship. That historic run set a high bar, and the program’s current trajectory suggests an attempt to defend that title.
While the outlook is optimistic, the model does acknowledge a realistic challenge against Ohio State, assigning the Buckeyes a 39.2% chance to win. That figure underscores the competitive nature of the schedule and the need for the Hoosiers to maintain focus in that particular matchup.