ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has become a benchmark for college‑football analysts, and its latest projection places the Iowa Hawkeyes at No. 25 among the nation’s teams for the 2026 season.
Projected Record and Playoff Prospects
The model predicts a 7.6‑4.4 overall record, which translates to an 86.2% likelihood of securing at least six wins, while the Hawkeyes are assigned an 11.7% chance of earning a College Football Playoff berth and a 1.7% chance of capturing the Big Ten title.
Early‑Season Schedule
In the early‑season slate, Iowa opens with a home game against Northern Illinois, a matchup where the model gives the Hawkeyes a 96.6% chance of victory, and the team is expected to rely on quarterback Jaylen Raynor to control the tempo. A short week later the Hawkeyes travel to face Iowa State, a rivalry that the FPI pegs at an 84.0% win probability for Iowa, with running back Cody Jackson slated to be a key weapon in the ground game. The non‑conference contest against Northern Iowa, a team without an FPI ranking, is projected as an 98.6% win for Iowa, giving the coaching staff a chance to experiment with fresh schemes before conference play.
Mid‑Season Showdowns
Mid‑season brings a trip to Ann Arbor to meet Michigan, a program ranked 15th nationally with a 28.2% win probability for Iowa; the game will test the defensive adjustments championed by defensive end Bo Jackson. Later, the Hawkeyes head to Columbus to confront Ohio State, the No. 1 team in the country, where the model forecasts a 12.4% chance of an upset, a scenario that could hinge on the playmaking ability of wide receiver Omari Hayes. Washington, ranked 26th, offers a 41.3% win probability for Iowa, while a home matchup against Minnesota, ranked 63rd, shows a 72.7% likelihood of victory, a game that could feature standout defensive tackle Jordan Marshall. Wisconsin, sitting at 43rd, presents a 72.7% win probability for Iowa, and the rivalry often produces dramatic finishes that could showcase the leadership of linebacker Jordan Marshall.
Key Players to Watch
Across the schedule, the recurring themes are a reliance on experienced playmakers such as quarterback Jaylen Raynor, receivers Cody Jackson and Omari Hayes, and a defense anchored by players like Bo Jackson, Jordan Marshall and Mo Ibrahim, all of whom are expected to shape Iowa’s fortunes as the season unfolds.
Late‑season showdowns with Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska each carry distinct win probabilities, but the common thread is the opportunity for Iowa’s roster of talent — including Carson Willich, Isaac Terrell, Savion Hiter, Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith, Jordan Washington, Dezmen Roebuck, Christian Moss, Jacob Lane, Xe'ree Alexander, Drake Lindsay, Darius Taylor, Anthony Smith Jr., Maverick Baronowski, John Nestor, Colton Joseph, Aidan Chiles, Chip Kelly, Jerry Neuheisel, Caleb Komolafe, Gavin Sawchuck, Griffin Wilde, Luke Dehnicke, Michael Kilbane, Braydon Brus, Brenden Deasfernandes, Katin Houser, Ca'lil Valentine, Aidan Laughery, Jake Renfro, Bobby Hauck, Xavier Scott, Matthew Bailey, TJ Lateef, Anthony Colandrea, Dylan Raiola, Kwazi Gilmer and Rob Aurich — to prove the preseason projections right or wrong.