ESPN’s latest forecast for the 2026 Atlantic Coast Conference football season leans heavily on Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric, a comprehensive measure of team strength that blends returning production, recruiting rankings and performance trends. The projection treats Notre Dame, though officially independent, as an ACC affiliate and places it at the top of the expected order.
Projected Order of Finish
According to the model, the Fighting Irish are slated to finish first with an SP+ rating of 25.8, underscoring their sustained excellence. The Miami Hurricanes follow closely in second place at 20.9, riding the momentum of a national‑championship game appearance the previous year. Clemson’s Tigers sit third with a rating of 12.7 as they aim to rebound from a challenging 2025 campaign.
Louisville and SMU round out the top five, each carrying a reputation for consistency. Virginia Tech enters the projection sixth, but the arrival of new head coach James Franklin adds a compelling narrative as the Hokies look to climb the rankings.
Storylines to Watch
Beyond the top tier, the remainder of the conference is ordered by descending SP+ scores, setting the stage for a season that could reshape ACC dynamics. Returning standout players such as quarterback CJ Carr, running back Darian Mensah and defensive standout Malachi Toney are expected to feature prominently for their respective squads, while coaches like Mike Norvell and Beau Pribula add further intrigue.
The projections also spotlight key matchups that could define the conference race, from early-season clashes between top‑ranked teams to potential upsets that might alter the final standings. As the 2026 season unfolds, the blend of established powerhouses and emerging contenders promises a competitive and unpredictable schedule.