The 2026‑27 NHL season is set to open on September 29, marking the earliest puck drop in more than a decade. For fantasy enthusiasts, that date also signals the release of Matt Larkin’s comprehensive top‑300 player rankings, a guide that blends statistical rigor with an eye on team context.
Early Season Outlook
Larkin’s methodology hinges on a blend of traditional box scores and advanced metrics — goals, assists, plus‑minus, shot volume, power‑play production, hits, blocked shots, goaltending percentages and shutouts all factor into the calculus that determines a player’s projected value.
At the centre of the conversation are the elite playmakers. Nathan MacKinnon continues to dominate with four straight seasons of at least 111 points, while Connor McDavid remains the safest point accumulator, even as his goal‑scoring fluctuates year to year. Both are anchored by a deep pool of talent that includes rising star Macklin Celebrini, who posted a 115‑point campaign at just 19, and veteran Nikita Kucherov, a three‑time scoring champion now entering his mid‑30s.
Among the wingers, David Pastrnak joins an exclusive club of 18 players with four consecutive 100‑point seasons, while Kirill Kaprizov’s steady 48‑50‑98 production per 82 games makes him a rock‑solid first‑rounder. Evan Bouchard matched Cale Makar’s offensive upside with 95 points last year, and the Avalanche’s Martin Necas is expected to keep his point totals soaring.
Defensemen such as Makar and Bouchard continue to reshape the blue‑liner landscape, but competition is rising. Rasmus Dahlin still offers value despite a dip in hit and block totals, and Leo Carlsson is emerging as an all‑around dominator whose team is on an upward trajectory.
Goaltending remains a cornerstone of fantasy success. Andrei Vasilevskiy is widely regarded as the safest net‑minder, while Igor Shesterkin’s elite shutout record over the past five seasons gives him a similar edge. Logan Thompson has been arguably the best goalie in the league over the past two years, and Ilya Shesterkin continues to lead all net‑minders in shutouts.
Sleepers and dark‑horse candidates add intrigue. Cutter Gauthier could lead the league in shots and goals, while Wyatt Johnston’s production is projected to improve with positive regression. Brady Tkachuk stands to benefit from his move to the Florida Panthers, and Matt Boldy is expected to break out as a 90‑point contributor.
Trade dynamics also shape rankings. Zach Werenski’s impact could surge if he lands on a contending club, and Mikko Rantanen’s durability and productivity since joining Dallas make him a reliable early‑draft option. Matthew Schaefer’s rookie‑defenseman record of 23 goals hints at a promising future.
Finally, Larkin stresses the importance of upside and consistency when building a draft board. Players like Jason Robertson, with a consistently high floor, and Nick Suzuki, the recent Selke Trophy winner who notched 100 points, are prized for their safety, while prospects such as Leo Carlsson and Jack Eichel offer a blend of skill and ceiling that can shift a team’s fortunes.