ESPN’s preseason projections, based on the Football Power Index, give Ohio State a 38.8% chance to capture the 2026 Big Ten title, positioning the Buckeyes as the clear front‑runners ahead of the upcoming season.
Key Players and Roster Dynamics
At the heart of that optimism is wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, widely regarded as the nation’s premier pass catcher and a Heisman Trophy finalist in his final year with the program.
The Buckeyes’ offense will also lean on quarterback Julian Sayin, a five‑star recruit and Heisman contender, who is expected to connect with a deep group of blue‑chip receivers, while the defense will be reshaped after the loss of safety Caleb Downs and linebackers Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles.
Coordinator Matt Patricia will retain senior lineman Kenyatta Jackson and integrate transfers James Smith and Qua Russaw, but the schedule adds a layer of difficulty, with road trips to Texas, Indiana, USC, Nebraska, Iowa and Oregon on the slate.
Oregon follows with a 24.2% projected chance and Indiana, the defending national champion, sits at 18.7%, making them the primary challengers; the Football Power Index’s 20,000 simulations weigh scores, opponent quality, talent, recruiting and schedule to generate these outlooks, underscoring the competitive balance expected in the conference.