HighSchoolOT has begun publishing its unofficial playoff projections for the 2026 North Carolina High School Athletic Association (NCHSAA) 5A football season, giving teams and fans an early look at how the tournament bracket may shape up.
The projections are built on the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI), a metric that blends win‑loss record with strength of schedule, and are refreshed in real‑time using score feeds from MaxPreps, a leading high‑school sports statistics platform.
Projected Schedule and Format
If the NCHSAA sticks to its traditional timeline, the official brackets will be released on October 31, 2026. Following that release, first‑round matchups will be played on November 6 at the higher‑seeded schools, with subsequent rounds scheduled for November 13, November 20, and November 27, each again at the higher‑seeded venues.
Regional finals are slated for December 4, and the state championship games will be held from December 10 through December 12 at neutral sites, offering a condensed but high‑stakes conclusion to the season.
It is important to note that these projections are not official; the NCHSAA may adjust pairings and dates once the final RPI data is locked in. Subscribers to HighSchoolOT can sign up for email alerts to receive updates as the brackets evolve.
The RPI system remains fluid, meaning that each new score submitted can shift team rankings and potentially alter the projected path for any given program.
What This Means for Teams
For coaches, the early projections serve as a strategic benchmark, highlighting which opponents may be avoided or confronted in the early rounds. Teams that see a favorable RPI trajectory can plan travel and preparation accordingly, while those facing a steep climb may adjust their schedules to improve their standing before the official cutoff.
Fans, meanwhile, can use the projections to anticipate marquee matchups and to engage in informed discussions on social media, fostering greater community involvement around the sport.