Heisman 2026: Who’s in the Mix?
The upcoming Heisman race is already taking shape, with analysts dividing prospects into four tiers: favorites, outsiders, sleepers and longshots. Each tier reflects a blend of performance metrics, program momentum and the ever‑shifting landscape of player movement.
At the top of the favorite list, Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr stands out after posting a 168.1 NCAA passer rating as a red‑shirt freshman, while Ole Miss signal‑caller Trinidad Chambliss, a Second‑Team All‑SEC selection, returns after a lengthy eligibility battle that has only heightened expectations.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning, who finally earned a full season as a starter, brings a legacy of hype but also concrete on‑field production, and Oregon’s Dante Moore, who elected to bypass the 2025 NFL Draft, adds a high‑octane arm to the conversation.
Ohio State’s duo of quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith could form a potent combination, with Smith projected as a potential first‑overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, while the Buckeyes’ other emerging arms — Bear Bachmeier at BYU, Josh Hoover at Indiana and Sam Leavitt at LSU — are being watched as possible surprise contributors.
The outsider category includes Drew Mestemaker of Oklahoma State, who led the nation in passing yards last season, and Miami’s Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney, whose chemistry could blossom with improved training‑camp rapport, potentially catapulting them into Heisman discussions.
Sleepers such as Penn State quarterback Rocco Becht, a veteran of the Iowa State system under coach Matt Campbell, and Alabama’s quarterback battle between Austin Mack and Keelon Russell could reshape the depth chart, while running backs Mark Fletcher Jr., Ahmad Hardy and Kewan Lacy each have the chance to surge with breakout seasons.
Longshot candidates like Auburn’s Byrum Brown, Texas wide receiver Cam Coleman — who recently transferred to join Arch Manning — and the ever‑exciting Bo Jackson, if he can engineer a magical year, illustrate how a single spectacular performance can rewrite the Heisman narrative.
The common thread across all tiers is the quarterback’s dominance in recent voting, but the evolving transfer portal and aggressive recruiting mean that a breakout performance by any position could shift the balance before the first kickoff.