SportsLine’s 2026 Fantasy football model has taken the unprecedented step of simulating 10,000 NFL seasons to forecast which players are most likely to underperform relative to their draft positions. The extensive simulation blends historical data, injury trends and offensive schematics to produce a nuanced bust list that goes beyond surface‑level statistics.
Key busts to avoid
Among the most notable names is New York Giants receiver Malik Nabers, whose projected output is clouded by a recent ACL injury and an offense that leans heavily on the run game under head coach Matt Nagy. The model predicts a steep decline in target share, making him a risky early‑round selection. Buffalo Bills running back James Cook also appears on the watch list; despite a solid rookie season, his higher fumble rate and lack of elite target volume have pushed him into late‑round territory.
The bust conversation isn’t limited to newcomers. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who enjoyed a career‑high season in 2024, was accurately flagged as a 2025 disappointment, finishing well outside the top‑50 ADP despite impressive yardage. His experience underscores how quickly a player’s value can erode when injury or scheme shifts occur.
A top‑tier receiver is also highlighted as a bust, landing barely inside the top 10 of the model’s rankings. The projection warns that even elite talent can be overvalued when ADP inflates expectations, especially in a draft class that features a deep pool of sleepers.
Sleepers and late‑round value
Veterans such as Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor and Puka Nacua continue to dominate the upper echelon of the rankings, but the model also shines a light on emerging backs like Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, who are angling for new contracts and could provide unexpected upside. The algorithm’s history of identifying sleepers — ranging from A.J. Brown in 2020 to C.J. Stroud in 2024 — offers a compelling case for digging deeper than surface ADP figures.
With the 2026 NFL season slated to open on September 9, fantasy owners are urged to finalize draft strategies now, balancing the allure of high‑profile stars against the model’s cautionary notes on busts. Leveraging SportsLine’s 10,000‑season simulation can help participants spot hidden risks and capitalize on undervalued talent before the draft board locks in.