The 2026 College Football Playoff picture in the Big 12 is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. While traditional powerhouses often dominate preseason polls, this year the conference’s depth could allow several mid‑tier programs to break through. Arizona entered the season unranked in the US LBM coaches top 25, yet teams such as Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, and Houston received modest rankings that hint at a competitive balance.
TCU’s Resurgence
TCU arrives with momentum after a 9‑4 finish in 2025, a victory over USC in the Alamo Bowl and a 2022 playoff appearance under coach Sonny Dykes. The Horned Frogs have also bolstered their offense with the addition of quarterback Jaden Craig, a transfer from Harvard who brings a fresh arm to the lineup.
Analysts from The Athletic have highlighted TCU and Oklahoma State as the two most likely sleepers outside the top 25, noting that both programs possess the talent and schedule to challenge for a playoff berth.
Oklahoma State’s New Direction
Oklahoma State, historically an upper‑tier Big 12 program, has struggled to win conference games over the past two seasons. New head coach Eric Morris hopes to change that narrative by tapping into North Texas talent, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins and receiver Wyatt Young, all of whom are expected to inject energy into the offense.
Chris Vannini predicts that, despite past disappointments, the Cowboys could secure a bowl game appearance this year, a milestone that would mark a turning point for the program.