As the 2026 college football season looms, analysts are already mapping out which coaching staffs might find themselves on the chopping block before the first bowl game is even played.
The Hot‑Seat Forecast
At the top of that list is Bill O'Brien, the former NFL assistant turned Boston College head coach. O'Brien's early slate pits the Eagles against Cincinnati, Rutgers, Virginia Tech and SMU, a quartet of games that could easily tumble into a 1‑4 start. The prospect of an opening loss is compounded by the fact that the program has not enjoyed a winning season in years, and despite a hefty financial package designed to keep him in Chestnut Hill, the pressure to win is mounting.
Not far behind is Mike Norvell, who returns to Florida State after a turbulent two‑year stint that left him with a 7‑17 record. CBS Sports has placed him on a 5.0 hot‑seat rating, yet the Seminoles are shielded by a $50 million buyout clause that makes a premature dismissal costly for the university. Their opening games against SMU on September 7 and Alabama on September 19 could set the tone for a season that might keep Norvell on the hot seat well into November.
Dave Aranda at Baylor is another name that surfaces when discussing early‑season firings. After six years at the helm, Aranda has logged only four winning campaigns and finished 5‑7 in 2025. The Bears' September schedule reads like a gauntlet: home matchups against Prairie View A&M and Louisiana Tech give way to road tests at BYU, Texas Tech and Houston, a stretch that could tip the balance toward a mid‑season exit.
Luke Fickell, now in his third year at Wisconsin, carries a 17‑21 overall record and managed just four victories in 2025. The Badgers open against Notre Dame at Lambeau Field on September 6 and later travel to Penn State on September 26. While early defeats to traditional powers are often forgiven, a string of losses could accelerate the decision to part ways before the conference season even begins.
Mike Locksley at Maryland faces a similar crossroads. The Terrapins have posted back‑to‑back 4‑8 seasons, and a late bye week in October postpones any firing decision until the dust settles. Their schedule includes a tough October stretch that could determine whether Locksley receives a contract extension or a pink slip.
While each coach brings a distinct set of challenges, the convergence of a difficult opening schedule, limited recent success and financial constraints makes Bill O'Brien the most likely candidate to be the first head coach dismissed in the 2026 season.