As the NASCAR Cup Series heads into its concluding stretch, the battle for the final playoff spots has turned into a high‑stakes mathematical exercise. Only the top 16 drivers after the last two events will secure a place in the postseason, and every point awarded in the remaining races can shift the standings dramatically.
Eliminations after Richmond
Alex Bowman of Hendrick Motorsports became the latest driver to see his championship hopes evaporate when the points tally after the Richmond race dropped him below the cutoff. In total, five drivers, including Bowman, were officially knocked out of contention at Richmond, joining a list that also features Austin Dillon, Riley Herbst, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and John Hunter Nemechek.
With only 152 points left to award across the final two events, every driver still in contention must stay within a narrow window of the current 16th‑place position held by Shane van Gisbergen. Austin Cindric’s third‑place finish at Richmond not only gave him a boost but also secured the coveted 16th spot, edging out several rivals who now face an uphill battle.
The remaining contenders — such as Ryan Preece, who sits 50 points adrift, and a cluster of drivers near the cutoff — must avoid falling below 76 points before the season finale. The pressure is mounting, and the points gap could shift dramatically in the final laps.
New Hampshire’s decisive test
The upcoming race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway will determine which of the remaining drivers — Brad Keselowski, Erik Jones, Michael McDowell and others — can claw back into the postseason. The track’s unique layout adds an extra layer of strategy, making the final showdown a true test of skill and timing.
While the championship picture remains fluid, the mathematical reality is clear: only a handful of drivers can still influence the playoff field, and the next two races will ultimately decide who joins the elite 16.