FanGraphs has rolled out a revised Elo‑based power ranking that blends recent performance with adjusted playoff odds, giving a clearer picture of which clubs are truly in contention as the 2026 season enters its final stretch.
Who’s Leading the Pack
At the top of the leaderboard sit the Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves, each hovering near the .500 mark but separated by slim margins. Their recent outings have been a mix of dominant stretches and occasional setbacks, keeping the competition razor‑sharp.
Teams on the Cusp
Just below the leaders, the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees anchor a second tier that includes the Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres. The Dodgers, despite a three‑game sweep of the Kansas City Royals, have struggled to find consistency in the second half, while the Yankees have hovered around the Wild Card threshold with a 69‑55 record.
The Brewers’ bounce‑back after a sweep by the Padres illustrates how quickly fortunes can shift, whereas the Cubs saw their NL Central lead trimmed to five games after dropping two straight to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Mid‑Tier Battles
In the National League Wild Card race, the Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals are locked in a tight contest. The Phillies snapped a series against Minnesota with Kyle Schwarber’s power surge, while the Cardinals added a spark with Joshua Báez’s debut performance.
Across the American League, the Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers are jostling for the final spots. The Orioles clinched the last Wild Card slot, fueled by Pete Alonso’s three‑home‑run outburst that underscored their late‑season push.
The Blue Jays, riding a six‑series winning streak, are set to face the Rays and Yankees this week, a matchup that could further shuffle the playoff picture. Meanwhile, the Rays completed a flawless nine‑game road trip before returning home to meet the Orioles.
Pitching Moves and Late‑Season Impact
At the trade deadline, the Braves opted for minimal activity, relying on veterans Martín Pérez and Tyler Mahle to stabilize a rotation that has shown flashes of brilliance but remains inconsistent. Their contributions have been pivotal in keeping the team within striking distance of the Wild Card.