Baseball

A New Statistical Lens Highlights the Next Generation of Baseball Hitters

The 'These Things Are Good' metric reshapes how we measure hitting talent, spotlighting unexpected stars like Heriberto Hernández.

Why 'These Things Are Good' Matters

The recent article introduces a novel statistical approach dubbed 'These Things Are Good' that evaluates hitters through a blend of air‑pull rate, exit velocity and plate discipline. By translating each metric into standard deviations, the method creates a common scale that can be combined into a single score.

What sets this system apart is the deliberate weighting of each component. The author assigns the highest weight to hitting the ball hard, recognizing that raw power is the foundation of run production, while still preserving the nuance of swing decisions and contact quality.

When the weights are applied, the metric explains roughly a quarter of the variation seen in wRC+, outperforming a simple equal‑weight model. This suggests that the approach captures meaningful signals about a hitter’s true impact at the plate.

At the top of the leaderboard stands Munetaka Murakami, whose combination of elite air‑pull ability and disciplined swing choices places him ahead of his peers. His profile illustrates how the method can isolate hitters who excel in multiple dimensions simultaneously.

Perhaps the most compelling case is that of Heriberto Hernández. The Marlins outfielder raised his swing rate from 42 percent in the minors to 46 percent in the majors, translating into a 126 wRC+ for the 2026 season. His improved plate discipline and higher‑value swing frequency have turned him into a formidable matchup for opposing pitchers.

The model also surfaces a cluster of players — such as Kyle Schwarber, Griffin Conine, Junior Caminero, Corey Seager, Ezequiel Tovar, Bo Naylor, Max Schuemann, Tim Tawa, Zack Gelof, Tyler Soderstrom and Matt Olson — who perform above average across several metrics despite limited sample sizes. Their emergence hints at a deeper pool of talent that traditional statistics might overlook.

Beyond individual rankings, the method offers scouting teams a clearer picture of which hitters can generate high‑value swings on a consistent basis. By quantifying the interplay between swing rate, contact quality and pitch selection, it provides a roadmap for identifying undervalued assets and forecasting how pitchers might need to adjust their strategies.

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