The 2026 fantasy football landscape is heating up as analysts turn their attention to the next tier of quarterbacks who could break out beyond the usual elite names. Two players who have generated considerable buzz are Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers and Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars, both of whom are being evaluated as potential middle‑round picks.
Herbert arrives with a current ADP that places him around the QB10 mark, a position that many view as a sweet spot for value. What sets him apart is the combination of a modern passing scheme under head coach Mike McDaniel and a Chargers offensive line that has been retooled to improve pocket stability. Those factors together create a scenario where Herbert can maximize his arm strength and red‑zone opportunities, giving him a high ceiling without the premium price tag.
The impact of scheme and supporting cast
Mike McDaniel’s offensive philosophy emphasizes quick, efficient throws and a heavy dose of play‑action that can open up deep routes for a quarterback with a strong arm. For Herbert, this means more chances to exploit his vertical stretch ability while the improved line reduces the likelihood of sacks that could stall drives. The result is a projection that leans heavily on high‑upside plays rather than a floor built on volume.
Trevor Lawrence, on the other hand, has already shown he can be a dual‑threat weapon. In 2025 he posted career‑high numbers in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdown passes, establishing a reliable rushing floor that many pocket passers lack. That dual-threat capability guarantees a baseline of points even on days when the passing game is muted, which helps protect his overall projection.
Fantasy analysts currently peg Lawrence at an average of 20.4 points per game, edging out Herbert’s 18.7 points per game. However, the difference in projected output is offset by a higher draft cost for Lawrence, making Herbert an attractive option when the two are priced similarly. The lower ADP for Herbert allows managers to allocate more resources to other positions while still securing a quarterback with a strong upside.
Late‑season momentum also plays a role in the evaluation. Lawrence finished the 2025 campaign with a surge that carried into the playoffs, suggesting he could carry that confidence into the next year. If his ADP drops below expectations, he becomes a compelling alternative, but the current market trends still favor Herbert as the better value pick.
In summary, the decision between Herbert and Lawrence hinges on risk tolerance and draft strategy. Herbert offers a compelling blend of scheme fit, offensive line improvement, and lower cost, making him the recommended choice when prices align. Lawrence remains a viable alternative with a higher floor thanks to his rushing ability, but his premium price may limit his appeal for managers seeking balanced rosters.