How the Simulation Works
The algorithm behind the projections runs 10,000 simulated NFL seasons, crunching every possible outcome to surface hidden value. By comparing each simulated result to the average draft position, the model flags players whose expected production outpaces their current rankings.
One of the most striking findings is the projection of De'Von Achane as a RB6, despite his current ADP sitting at RB12. In the model’s most successful run, Achane amassed 1,838 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns, illustrating the upside that can be unlocked when injury concerns are outweighed by workload.
At the tight end position, Isaiah Likely is slated as TE9. The model sees the Giants’ tight end as the primary target in a revamped offense, projecting a larger role that pushes him beyond the typical late‑round expectations.
Running backs projected to fall in the mid‑twenties include Tony Pollard, who the simulation places at RB27. The algorithm groups him with other backs such as TreVeyon Henderson and Rico Dowdle, suggesting that their late‑round value may be undervalued.
The model also points to a veteran wide receiver who could break into the top‑10 performers, a player who has historically delivered when given increased snap counts. While names like CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown dominate early conversations, the simulation hints at a less‑heralded pass catcher poised for a surge.
Historical accuracy lends credence to the outlook. Past simulations correctly identified future standouts such as A.J. Brown, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey, all of whom exceeded their draft positions in subsequent seasons.
As the 2026 draft season gains momentum, analysts advise targeting these sleepers to gain a competitive edge. Players who appear later on rankings but show strong simulated upside can provide the necessary depth to outperform expectations.