2026 Fantasy Football: Busts That Could Derail Your Draft
SportsLine’s 2026 Fantasy football rankings were derived from a model that ran 10,000 simulated NFL seasons, a methodology that has already proven its worth by flagging players who later underperformed. The algorithm’s track record includes correctly predicting the dip of Terry McLaurin in 2025, a season that saw the Washington Commanders star post career‑low receiving numbers because of injury.
Among the names that the model flags as potential busts are Malik Nabers, the New York Giants receiver who is projected to be selected around the 33rd overall pick, and Buffalo Bills running back James Cook, whose average draft position hovers near the 11th spot but is placed at RB No. 10 by the simulation. Both players appear attractive on the surface, yet the model suggests they could fall short of expectations.
The analysis also points to an unnamed receiver who barely cracks the top ten in the model’s projections but is expected to be a major disappointment, underscoring the risk of overvaluing players with high ADP but lower underlying rankings.
Veterans who the model favors include Josh Allen, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Ja’Marr Chase, all of whom are projected to be among the first picks in the 2026 draft. Their proven performance and favorable matchups make them safer investments compared with the high‑risk options the simulation warns against.
Fantasy owners are urged to fade any player whose ADP outpaces the model’s ranking, a strategy that aligns with the service’s historical advice to target high‑performing veterans while steering clear of overhyped sleepers. With the 2026 NFL season slated to open on September 9, early draft preparation using these insights could be the difference between a championship run and a disappointing year.