2026 Big 12 Outlook: Utah and BYU’s Chances
The 2026 college football season is shaping up to be a clash of the Big 12’s rising powers, with Utah and BYU both entering the year after dominant 2025 campaigns. The Utes finished 11‑1 and captured the conference title game, while the Cougars went 12‑1 and also secured a spot in the championship. Both programs are now turning their attention to the next chapter, and early forecasts suggest a fierce battle for the conference crown.
At the helm of Utah’s offense is new head coach Morgan Scalley, who takes over after a long stint as defensive coordinator under Kyle Whittingham. Scalley inherits a young offensive line and a set of unanswered questions at receiver, but he brings a reputation for physical, hard‑nosed play that matches the Utes’ traditional identity.
Utah’s returning skill players include quarterback Devon Dampier, veteran Byrd Ficklin, and running back Wayshawn Parker. The schedule is designed to be manageable, steering clear of a direct matchup with Texas Tech, which could give the Utes a clearer path to a winning record.
BYU, on the other hand, returns a loaded roster that features the Big 12’s top running back, LJ Martin, and experienced quarterback Bear Bachmeier. The Cougars are expected to build on their offensive depth and could see an uptick in NFL draft prospects, a trend that has not been seen since the 1996 class.
Expert Projections
Analysts have converged on a consensus that BYU will finish second in the league behind Texas Tech, while Utah is projected to land third, with win totals ranging from a modest 7‑5 to a more optimistic 10‑2. Stewart Mandel, for instance, pencils Utah at 7‑5 overall (4‑5 in conference) because of the learning curve for Scalley and roster attrition, whereas CBS Sports sees a 10‑2 finish with losses only to BYU and TCU.
ESPN’s FPI model gives Utah an expected 7.7 wins, ranking them 31st nationally and third in the Big 12, while their SP+ projection sits at 8.4 average wins. BYU’s FPI predicts 8.7 wins, placing them 20th nationally and second in the conference, with an SP+ rating of 8.8. Athlon Sports also projects BYU second in the league and contending for another championship game appearance.
The potential Big 12 championship matchup between Utah and BYU looms as a marquee storyline, especially if the Utes can overcome the early adjustments under Scalley. Meanwhile, Texas Tech’s easy schedule positions them as the team to beat, but the depth and talent on display from the Utes and Cougars suggest that the race for the title will be anything but predictable.