Florida State opened the 2026 campaign with a 34‑17 victory over New Mexico State, a win that required a late surge to erase an early 27‑17 deficit. The decisive score came from Ousmane Kromah, whose touchdown in the final minutes sealed the triumph and improved the Seminoles to 1‑0.
Ranking Ripple Effects
Despite the win, the Seminoles slid four places in ESPN’s Football Power Index, falling from No. 28 to No. 32. The index, which gauges projected team strength rather than past outcomes, penalizes the team for not meeting preseason expectations, illustrating how future performance can outweigh a victory.
Pre‑season forecasts had projected the Seminoles to finish with roughly 6.7 wins and a 71 % chance of reaching six wins, while their odds of capturing the ACC title stood at 4.2 % and a 9.5 % chance of making the College Football Playoff. The narrow win over New Mexico State did little to alter those projections, underscoring the volatility of the model.
Looking Ahead to SMU
The next test arrives on Labor Day when Florida State hosts SMU in an ACC opener. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Seminoles a 48.5 % chance of victory, reflecting a closely contested battle in which their ranking advantage is minimal compared with other conference rivals.
What the Rankings Mean
The dip in the FPI not only affects national perception but also influences betting lines and playoff projections, adding pressure on the coaching staff as they fine‑tune preparations for the SMU clash.