Week 1 Results and Forecast Shifts
After the opening week, ESPN’s Matchup Predictor refreshed the Ohio State Buckeyes’ win probabilities, reflecting a dominant 56-3 victory over Ball State that pushed their all‑time series record to 1‑0.
The Buckeyes’ 2026 slate features a blend of home and road challenges, with trips to Texas, Indiana, Iowa and USC and home dates against Oregon and Michigan, setting the stage for a rigorous test of depth and consistency.
Probability swings are evident: the Texas matchup fell from 46.3% to 40.1%, while the Iowa game rose modestly to 88.7% after a baseline of 87.6%. Nebraska’s outlook slipped to 88.0% from 89.4%, and the Michigan contest climbed to 92.3% from 86.1%. Indiana’s chances edged up to 61.3% from 60.8%, and USC improved to 76.7% from 75.0%. Oregon’s probability jumped to 80.6% from 71.6%, and Northwestern inched to 97.5% from 97.4%. Kent State remained a near‑certainty at 99.0%, and Illinois nudged up to 96.3% from 95.4%. Maryland dipped slightly to 97.4% from 97.6%.
Despite these fluctuations, ESPN’s projection still envisions an 11‑1 record by Week 12, underscoring confidence in the Buckeyes’ ability to navigate the toughest stretches of the schedule.