The Michigan Wolverines opened their 2026 campaign with a shocking one‑point defeat to Western Michigan, a team that entered the game as a clear underdog.
That surprise result sent the Wolverines’ SP+ metric tumbling, dropping them from their preseason standing to No. 26 with a rating of 12.2, a decline that has left them trailing six of the programs scheduled to face them this fall.
Season Outlook
Analysts now forecast a 6‑6 finish for Michigan, a projection built on a slate that includes Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Oklahoma, Iowa and Penn State, each of which currently outranks the Wolverines in the SP+ rankings.
Meanwhile, Western Michigan capitalized on the upset, climbing nine spots in the SP+ chart to reach No. 81, underscoring the impact of an unexpected victory on a traditionally lower‑profile program.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Oklahoma, fresh from a decisive opener against UTEP, sits at No. 10 with a 21.7 SP+ rating, and statistical models expect the Sooners to win the upcoming Michigan‑Oklahoma showdown by roughly 9.5 points, a margin that exceeds current betting lines.
Whether the early loss is an isolated blip or the first sign of a broader downturn will become clearer when the Wolverines take the field against Oklahoma, a matchup that is now viewed as decidedly unfavorable for Michigan.