The 2026 campaign has introduced a trio of starting pitchers whose early-season statistics reveal a clear downward trend, with Shane Baz and Andrew Abbott standing out as the most affected.
The numbers behind the slump
Baz’s velocity metrics have slipped by more than five points, while his command grades have also dipped, contributing to a home‑run rate that, although lower than the previous year, is offset by a sub‑10 percent strike‑out‑to‑walk percentage. The Orioles right‑hander has introduced a sinker into his mix, generating more groundballs, but his four‑seamer’s usage has been trimmed and its effectiveness remains modest. Left‑handed batters have found success against his knuckle curve, and his changeup continues to be exploited by opposite‑handed hitters, resulting in weak contact but limited swing‑and‑miss.
Across the league, Abbott’s control issues have been equally pronounced. The Reds left‑hander has seen his ball‑rate climb and his swinging‑strike rate fall, driving a sharp decline in his K‑BB% and raising concerns about his overall effectiveness. He has reduced his shadow‑zone deliveries, allowing more contact, while an elevated arm angle has altered the movement profiles of his pitches. His curveball, though producing weaker contact, carries a higher expected wOBA, and his changeup has generated more whiffs but with poorer results against right‑handed hitters. Even his four‑seamer, thrown with a new approach, has struggled to locate right‑handed batters.
What the data suggests
Analysts point to a handful of actionable adjustments. Baz could benefit from refining his changeup location and increasing its spin efficiency to improve whiff rates, while also leaning on the sinker to keep groundball rates high. Abbott might experiment with a more consistent arm slot to stabilize his command and explore alternative placements for his curveball to reduce the elevated expected wOBA.
Broader impact
Both clubs face decisions about roster depth and development timelines. The Orioles may look to bolster their rotation options if Baz’s performance does not rebound, while the Reds could accelerate the integration of younger arms to offset Abbott’s volatility. The early‑season trends underscore the fine line between refinement and regression in modern pitching philosophies.