ESPN’s latest projection of the 2026 Big 12 order of finish leans heavily on Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric, a comprehensive tool that blends returning production, recruiting and schedule strength. According to the model, Texas Tech emerges as the clear favorite to capture the conference title, a position bolstered by the eligibility of quarterback Brendan Sorsby despite a two‑game suspension that will not affect his overall availability.
Key Storylines Across the League
BYU is positioned as a strong contender, anchored by returning quarterback Bear Bachmeier and a defense that proved resilient in the previous campaign. The Cougars’ blend of experience and depth suggests they could challenge the projected leader, especially if their secondary continues to tighten up against high‑powered offenses.
Utah, under new head coach Morgan Scalley, is expected to remain in the title conversation. The Utes bring back several pivotal contributors and will lean on a revamped defensive scheme that Scalley has been fine‑tuning throughout the offseason. Early indicators point to a team that could translate its Pac‑12 pedigree into immediate Big 12 success.
Coaching Transitions and Their Impact
Kansas State’s decision to appoint former star quarterback Collin Klein as head coach brings a fresh offensive philosophy that emphasizes a balanced attack and disciplined play‑calling. Meanwhile, Arizona State’s recent playoff pedigree and offensive talent give it a reputation for high‑scoring potential, while Arizona’s steady progress under its current staff suggests a program that could break into the upper tier of the conference.
Other programs also feature compelling narratives. TCU will rely on a potent receiving corps and a new quarterback in Jaden Craig, while Houston’s transfer‑laden roster, highlighted by quarterback Conner Weigman, could push the Cougars into the middle tier of contenders. Oklahoma State is entering a new era with head coach Eric Morris, who brings a wave of transfers aimed at reshaping the team’s identity.
The breadth of talent across the league is underscored by the presence of numerous coaches and players who have already made headlines this offseason. From Sonny Dykes’ aggressive recruiting at Texas Tech to Brent Brennan’s strategic adjustments at Arizona State, the conference’s coaching carousel promises to keep the narrative fresh throughout the year.