Bill Connelly, the analytics guru at ESPN, has released his early forecast for the 2026 Big Ten football order of finish, painting a picture of a conference that remains as competitive as ever.
Top Contenders
According to his model, the Ohio State Buckeyes sit atop the projection, with head coach Ryan Day leading a squad that appears poised to start the season as the clear favorite.
Not far behind, the Oregon Ducks emerge as the most credible threat, driven by Dan Lanning’s growing program and a recruiting pipeline that could close the gap.
Indiana’s meteoric rise continues after capturing the 2025 national championship, and first‑year coach Curt Cignetti is already being counted on to keep the Hoosiers in the mix.
USC, under Lincoln Riley, is slated to finish fourth in the league and thirteenth nationally, a placement that reflects both the potential of the Trojans’ talent and the expectations placed on Riley’s offense.
Michigan remains one of the conference’s most talented teams despite a wave of roster turnover, keeping the Wolverines in the conversation for a top‑five finish.
Penn State’s outlook is harder to pin down, as the program navigates a new head coach and a range of divergent projections that leave analysts cautious.
Washington, ranked twenty‑first nationally, could be poised to break into double‑digit wins, adding another layer of intrigue to the mid‑tier race.
Iowa, known for its physical brand of play, is expected to hover just outside the national top twenty, a position that reflects both strengths and question marks.
Illinois is trending upward, with Bret Bielema’s rebuilding effort potentially keeping the Fighting Illini in bowl eligibility.
Nebraska, positioned inside the conference’s top ten, faces the classic challenge of turning preseason promise into consistent on‑field results under Matt Rhule.
The full projection also references other coaches such as Kyle Whittingham, Matt Campbell, Jedd Fisch, Kirk Ferentz and Bret Bielema, underscoring the depth of experience across the league.