In fantasy baseball, the notion of a player’s “streakiness” often looms large in discussions about roster construction.
Measuring Volatility
The author defines volatility as the month‑to‑month standard deviation of key statistics, using the coefficient of variation to normalize across players of varying talent levels. Applying this metric to the 2025 season, the piece isolates the most and least volatile performers.
Using those volatility scores, the writer assembles hypothetical lineups that range from low‑variance to high‑variance compositions. Each roster is then tested in both rotisserie and head‑to‑head scoring formats to see how stability translates into overall points.
The comparative analysis reveals that, while volatile players can produce occasional spikes, the aggregate performance of low‑volatility and high‑volatility teams converges. In other words, volatility does not create a statistically significant gap between the two league structures.
Consequently, the author advises that volatility should not dominate valuation decisions unless a manager’s overall strategy systematically leans toward or away from erratic production.
The study underscores the importance of objective metrics in countering bias toward streaky players, helping fantasy participants build more balanced rosters based on consistent output rather than short‑term bursts.