The Surplus Value Framework
In the lead‑up to the 2026 fantasy baseball season, analysts at FanGraphs and FantasyPros have been refining a simple yet powerful question: which players will deliver more points than the slot in which they are being drafted? The answer begins with a baseline that estimates the expected contribution of each draft position, built from pre‑season projections and the consensus ADP data that FantasyPros aggregates. By comparing a player’s projected output to that baseline, a surplus‑value score emerges, highlighting those who are being undervalued relative to their average draft position.
Creating that baseline is not a matter of a single linear equation. The authors employ spline regressions that smooth the relationship between draft slot and projected value, allowing for non‑linear shifts in expected production. Separate models are run for 5×5 roto leagues and for points‑based formats, because the scoring settings dramatically alter the marginal value of each statistical category. The resulting tables show the predicted point contribution for every pick, providing a reference point that can be adjusted for league‑specific quirks.
One statistical caveat that repeatedly surfaces is heteroskedasticity — the tendency for the variance of a player’s projected output to change across the draft spectrum. When the spread of outcomes widens at certain slots, simple point estimates can be misleading, and the surplus‑value calculation must be tempered with confidence intervals or Bayesian shrinkage techniques to avoid over‑fitting the noise.
Bargains That Stand Out
When the numbers are crunched, a handful of names repeatedly rise to the top of the bargain leaderboard. Aaron Judge, still projected to exceed his mid‑first‑round ADP in power categories, joins a group that includes rookie Miguel Vargas, who offers a blend of speed and contact that outpaces his late‑round price tag. Young arms such as Tarik Skubal and Zack Wheeler are flagged for their strike‑out potential relative to their draft positions, while emerging relievers like Paul Skenes and Griffin Jax provide high upside at a discount. Even position players who have slipped under the radar, including Nathan Eovaldi, Juan Soto and Matt Wallner, appear on the list because their projected on‑base plus slugging metrics outstrip the expectations for their slots.
The practical takeaway for drafters is to use these surplus‑value scores as a guide rather than a guarantee. Incorporating a few of the highlighted players can add depth to a roster, but the risk of over‑reliance on statistical projections remains. Savvy managers will blend the analytical output with situational awareness — ballpark factors, injury histories and late‑season trends — to fine‑tune their final selections.