The Pitchers Poised for a Turnaround
As the 2026 season unfolds, attention is turning to a handful of starting pitchers whose early statistics have been uneven but whose underlying metrics suggest a turnaround may be imminent. Advanced projection models from FanGraphs, known as OOPSY, highlight four arms—George Kirby, Jesús Luzardo, Kyle Bradish, and Framber Valdez—who could see their ratios improve dramatically as the schedule progresses.
George Kirby’s Mixed Bag
Kirby, who has battled a high WHIP and a dip in strikeout‑to‑walk percentage this year, still possesses near‑elite command of his fastball and sweeping slider. The right‑hander has swapped his former splitter for a changeup that has been surprisingly effective against left‑handed hitters, while his knuckle curve, though less lethal than before, remains a weapon when located properly.
Jesús Luzardo’s Upside
Luzardo’s profile is equally compelling. A career‑best groundball rate is offset by a still‑elevated home‑run‑per‑flyball figure, but his sinker is generating a high groundball percentage and his changeup boasts a career‑high Stuff+ rating. The left‑hander’s projected ERA swing, according to OOPSY, could be the largest among the group.
Kyle Bradish’s Search for Consistency
Bradish’s story is one of control struggles tempered by recent signs of progress. After a period of erratic command, the right‑hander’s sinker has begun to coax more groundballs, even as his slider and curveball are producing fewer whiffs than in prior seasons. Still, the increased contact on his slider against right‑handed batters hints at a need for refinement.
Framber Valdez’s Quiet Comeback
Valdez, now with the Detroit Tigers, has experienced a dip in both strikeout‑to‑walk percentage and swinging‑strike rate since the move. His groundball rate has plummeted, undermining the effectiveness of his sinker and changeup, while his curveball and slider are generating fewer whiffs. Yet the pitcher’s high Stuff+ on his slider suggests that patience may be warranted as he works to rediscover his rhythm.
The common thread among these four is a disconnect between surface statistics and the deeper data that underpin performance. If the projections hold, the upcoming stretch could reshape perceptions of each pitcher and influence both fantasy lineups and real‑world roster decisions.