The NASCAR Cup Series In‑Season Tournament opened its first round with the Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway, turning the scenic California road course into a high‑stakes arena where 32 drivers vie for a $1 million purse and the chance to advance to the next stage.
Who’s Favored in the Opening Pairings?
Tyler Reddick enters as the clear favorite over Alex Bowman, a conclusion bolstered by Reddick’s consistent performances and his proven aptitude on twisty circuits.
Denny Hamlin is expected to dispatch Ty Dillon, even though Dillon pulled off an upset in last year’s edition; Hamlin’s recent results on similar layouts give him the edge.
Ryan Blaney’s reputation for road‑course consistency makes him the preferred pick against Josh Berry, whose own road‑course record remains solid but secondary.
Chase Elliott, despite a recent dip in form, is still projected to outpace Noah Gragson, whose close finishes have raised eyebrows but not enough to overturn Elliott’s pedigree.
The remaining contests feature a mix of surprise contenders and seasoned veterans; Ty Gibbs, the defending champion, is expected to overcome Austin Dillon, while Kyle Larson’s health advantage could see him advance past Riley Herbst.
Chris Buescher’s momentum and strong average finish at Sonoma position him ahead of John Hunter Nemechek, and Daniel Suarez continues his strong season by topping Todd Gilliland.
Carson Hocevar’s recent surge gives him a slight edge over Zane Smith, whereas Ross Chastain’s advantage over Christopher Bell is amplified by Bell’s injury.
William Byron’s health and road‑course pedigree make his progression over Ricky Stenhouse Jr. appear almost certain, and Chase Briscoe’s superior equipment should carry him past AJ Allmendinger.
Michael McDowell’s upset potential against Bubba Wallace is tempered by Wallace’s recent second‑place finish, while Shane van Gisbergen’s road‑course mastery makes him the clear favorite over Ryan Preece.
Erik Jones and Joey Logano present a tight battle, but Logano’s superior average finish at Sonoma nudges the scales in his favor, and Austin Cindric’s health advantage should see him defeat Brad Keselowski.
Strategic Outlook
Teams are adjusting their setups and driver line‑ups in anticipation of the unique challenges each circuit presents, with a particular focus on tire management and braking stability.
The tournament’s format also introduces a psychological element, as drivers who survive the first round gain not only prize money but also a psychological boost that can influence later races.
What’s Next
Following Sonoma, the tournament will travel to Watkins Glen, the Naval Base Coronado, the Circuit of the Americas in Texas and other venues, each offering a fresh set of challenges and opportunities for drivers to cement their early‑season momentum.