The 2026 Big 12 season will kick off in just over a month, with Colorado opening against Georgia Tech on September 3, setting the stage for a conference that ESPN’s Football Power Index expects to be tightly contested.
The Football Power Index translates its statistical projections into win‑loss expectations, painting a picture of a league where the middle tier clusters around the .500 mark.
Projected Win‑Loss Landscape
Five programs, including the Buffaloes, are slated to finish near a 6‑6 record, underscoring the parity that could define the schedule.
Meanwhile, Utah, Houston and Arizona sit on the cusp of an eight‑win campaign, suggesting they could break out of the pack with a few key victories.
Playoff Contenders
At the top of the forecast, Texas Tech and BYU emerge as the clear front‑runners, each projected to exceed ten wins and positioned as likely College Football Playoff contenders.
The remainder of the league is spread across a spectrum of expectations, with Iowa State, West Virginia, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Kansas, UCF, Cincinnati, Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, and others each occupying distinct win‑loss windows that range from just under five to just over seven victories.