2026 College Football Preview: Texas State and Texas Tech Eye New Horizons
The 2026 college football season is shaping up to be a watershed year for two Texas programs that are stepping into uncharted territory. Texas State, a longtime member of the Sun Belt, is set to make its debut in the Pac‑12, a move that has generated both excitement and skepticism among analysts. Meanwhile, Texas Tech, fresh off a surprise run to the College Football Playoff in 2025, is aiming to capture its first Big 12 championship and translate that momentum into a repeat performance.
A panel of award‑winning columnists from the state’s leading newspapers — including the Austin American‑Statesman, the Houston Chronicle, the San Antonio Express‑News and the Dallas Morning News — have released their outlooks for the upcoming campaigns. Their forecasts paint a picture of contrasting trajectories: one program eyeing a playoff berth, the other targeting a conference crown.
Predictions from Texas Media
Kirk Bohls, writing for the Austin American‑Statesman, projects Texas State to finish 8‑4 overall and third in the Pac‑12, despite a schedule that includes road tests against traditional powers. Mike Finger of the Dallas Morning News takes a more conservative view, predicting a fourth‑place finish for the Bobcats and a 6‑6 record that would still secure a bowl invitation.
Cedric Golden of the Houston Chronicle adds that Texas State’s offense, anchored by quarterback Brad Jackson and offensive mastermind GJ Kinne, could rank among the top Group of Five units in the conference.
Kevin Sherrington, also of the Dallas Morning News, places Texas State fifth in the league, citing a potent aerial attack led by Jackson. The columnist notes that the team’s success will hinge on maintaining offensive consistency while navigating a tough road slate.
On the Big 12 side, Texas Tech’s head coach Joey McGuire is expected to defend the title he helped clinch last season. Bohls predicts the Red Raiders will once again be the team to beat, with Cody Campbell’s unit positioned as the favorite to win the conference. Finger, however, foresees a second‑place finish for Texas Tech, warning that rivals such as BYU, Utah, Kansas State and Arizona could deliver upsets.
Golden’s projection is more optimistic, forecasting a 10‑2 record for Texas Tech and a conference championship, with quarterback Will Hammond slated to start. Sherrington echoes this sentiment, identifying only Houston as a potential stumbling block for the Red Raiders.
Beyond the two Texas powerhouses, other storylines loom. Houston, still under its returning head coach and with a stable quarterback and coordinators, is being touted as a Power Five sleeper capable of pulling off surprise victories. Meanwhile, Tarleton State, fresh from a notable win over Army in 2025, is expected to continue its upward trajectory and could upset an FBS opponent.
The broader implications of these predictions extend to the playoff picture. If Texas State can translate its offensive firepower into wins, the Pac‑12 could see a new contender emerge from the Group of Five, while a repeat Big 12 champion would reinforce the conference’s resurgence after a decade of relative dormancy.