SportsLine’s 2026 Fantasy football rankings are the product of a massive simulation that ran 10,000 NFL seasons, using historical performance data to project which players are most likely to underperform relative to their average draft position.
Among the names flagged as potential busts is wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who despite a career‑high 13 touchdown catches and nearly 1,100 receiving yards in 2024, is projected to slip outside the top‑50 picks in 2025 because of injury concerns and a dip in his per‑game production.
Running back David Montgomery, who thrived as a high‑volume scorer in Detroit, is expected to see his output diminish in Houston’s less explosive offense. Analysts place his ADP around the 51st overall pick, positioning him alongside later‑round options such as Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell.
Another back drawing caution is James Cook. After two solid seasons and a 2022 RB6 finish, the model ranks him at RB No. 10 this year, citing a higher fumble rate and limited target share, suggesting he should be taken later than his current ADP.
The simulation also warns against fading early‑round receivers, especially one who barely cracks the top ten but is projected to be a major bust. Such a scenario underscores the risk of overvaluing players whose upside may not materialize.
A Proven Track Record
SportsLine’s model has a history of delivering accurate forecasts, having correctly identified sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey in 2018, and Alvin Kamara in 2018, which adds credibility to its current projections.
Injuries to key playmakers such as Lamar Jackson, Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas Jr. and Bucky Irving last season created gaps in many fantasy lineups, forcing owners to adjust strategies and consider alternative options.
The model also highlights sleepers who could outperform expectations, including A.J. Brown, who was identified as a breakout candidate in 2020, as well as 2021’s Jonathan Taylor and 2024’s C.J. Stroud, who are projected to exceed their draft positions.
For those looking to refine their draft plans, the full 2026 Fantasy football rankings and accompanying cheat sheets from SportsLine provide detailed breakdowns of busts, high‑end picks to avoid, and strategic recommendations.