The 2026 NFL season is set to open on Wednesday, September 9, and fantasy football enthusiasts are already mapping out draft strategies.
Analysts are leaning on a massive simulation from SportsLine, which has run 10,000 iterations of the upcoming schedule to surface sleepers, breakout candidates and, perhaps most importantly, players who could become costly busts.
A proven track record
The model correctly forecasted that Washington receiver Terry McLaurin would finish well outside the top‑50 in 2025 ADP, a prediction that proved accurate and underscored its reliability.
It also identified A.J. Brown as a breakout in 2020 and captured Jonathan Taylor’s monster season in 2021, giving owners confidence in its forward‑looking metrics.
Players the model warns against
One of the most discussed busts is New York Giants receiver Malik Nabers. After tearing his ACL last year and undergoing a follow‑up procedure in the spring, he is not guaranteed to be fully ready for the season opener. The Giants are expected to lean heavily on the run game under coordinator Matt Nagy, which further reduces his target share.
Nabers is being drafted around pick 32, but the simulation ranks him outside the top‑15 receivers, suggesting that his current ADP may be inflated.
Another name flashing red on the radar is Buffalo Bills running back James Cook. He is currently being taken as the ninth overall pick and the fifth running back off the board, yet the model places him at RB 10, behind backs such as Derrick Henry and Chase Brown.
Cook’s recent production has been solid, but his fumble rate climbed last season and he is not considered an elite pass‑catching threat. The model’s caution reflects those hidden risks.
Finding value elsewhere
While the model flags those high‑profile names, it also highlights several sleepers who could outperform their average draft position. Running backs Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are among those angling for new contracts and could provide upside if they secure larger roles.
Wide receivers such as Nico Collins, Zay Flowers and DeVonta Smith are also projected to exceed expectations, making them attractive mid‑round targets.
For owners looking to maximize value, the recommendation is to cross‑reference the latest fantasy rankings and cheat sheets, especially those produced by the SportsLine simulation, before locking in their draft boards.