The 2026 fantasy football landscape is being reshaped by a fresh look at quarterback average draft position (ADP), a metric that reveals how teams are valuing each signal‑caller in the early stages of drafts.
The Pitfalls of Relying on ADP
Josh Allen sits at an ADP of 20.9, making him the only quarterback selected in the first three rounds, yet analysts caution that his high cost lacks a clear justification and can lock a roster into an overpriced starter.
Quarterbacks such as Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence present a more attractive proposition, with ADPs of 86.1 and 98.5 respectively, offering comparable upside at a fraction of the price.
Patrick Mahomes, currently drafted at QB14 with an ADP of 101.9, is viewed as a fair price for a high‑end QB2 despite a recent knee injury that could limit his rushing production.
Later‑round options are gaining attention. Jared Goff, with an ADP of 114.5, has posted at least 20.1 fantasy points per game over the past four seasons, making him a dependable late‑round pick. Bo Nix, drafted at 130.3, averaged 22.1 points as a rookie and is poised for growth with a stronger offensive line. Kyler Murray, at 138.2, benefits from a potent Minnesota receiving corps that could push him into the top‑12 fantasy performers.
Tyler Shough, selected at 146.9, showed a 20.3‑point average in his final eight rookie starts, a trend that coach Kellen Moore has historically amplified. Malik Willis, at 152.1, offers high upside through his rushing ability, though his supporting cast remains thin.
The consensus among analysts is clear: draft strategies should pivot away from blindly following ADP and instead lean on tiered rankings and expert consensus to build balanced rosters.