The 2026 NFL tight end class is being dissected through a blend of draft capital, career production, declare status and weight, metrics that together paint a clearer picture of each prospect’s potential at the next level.
Historical data shows that only 4.8% of tight ends selected on day three have gone on to post a TE1 season since 2013, and those whose collegiate SRS career scores fall below the 50th percentile manage a mere 2% breakout rate, compared with 11.5% for those above it.
Eli Stowers: From quarterback to TE standout
Stowers abandoned a quarterback background at Vanderbilt and quickly became the class leader in yards per route run, a statistic that signals high efficiency in route execution and catching opportunities.
Kenyon Sadiq, a first-round selection by the New York Jets, carries a 51st-percentile experience-adjusted production score, indicating that his college output was modest relative to his draft position.
Max Klare, drafted in the second round by the Los Angeles Rams, posted a 95th-percentile mark for receiving yards per team pass attempt in 2024, suggesting a strong ability to generate separation and convert targets.
Eli Raridon, a third-round pick of the New England Patriots, logged an 87th-percentile SRS Production Score, a figure that historically correlates with a 50% breakout probability for comparable prospects.
Sam Roush, selected by the Chicago Bears in the third round, arrives with limited collegiate production and a depth chart crowded with established veterans, making a rapid impact unlikely.
What This Means for Teams
Teams will continue to weigh the modest production of day-three tight ends against the high bust rate, often opting for players with higher upside or immediate special-teams value. The data underscores that collegiate production remains the most reliable predictor of future success, even as draft positioning and athletic testing continue to capture headlines.