Fantasy Football ADP Shifts: The Rising and Falling Stars of 2026
The quarterback tier in fantasy football has become increasingly compressed, with most starters clustering between the fifth and thirteenth overall rankings. This tight band reflects both the uncertainty surrounding emerging talent and the high upside that teams are willing to bet on.
Jaxson Dart, the New York Giants quarterback, illustrates how a thin supporting cast can push a prospect down the ADP ladder. Once projected as a top‑ten signal‑caller, Dart now sits at QB11 after scouts highlighted his middling weapons, including Darius Slayton and Isaiah Likely, as insufficient to sustain a high‑volume passing attack.
At the tight end position, Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills faces a similar narrative. Despite a projected target share of 17‑20 % that outpaces Dawson Knox’s 9‑12 % outlook, Kincaid’s ADP has slipped, a move many analysts view as an overreaction to the competition for reps.
Kyler Murray, the Minnesota Vikings quarterback, adds another layer of complexity. While slated to start, Murray will share snaps with JJ McCarthy, creating a split‑reps scenario that introduces risk. Yet his upside remains pronounced, especially after a camp connection on a deep ball with Justin Jefferson, and a depth chart that also features Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings and TJ Hockenson.
Coach Kevin O'Connell’s offensive philosophy emphasizes a balanced attack, which could further influence how Murray’s reps are distributed and how the Vikings deploy their playmakers.
The ripple effects extend beyond individual rankings. Players such as CJ Stroud and Malik Nabers are also being reassessed as teams fine‑tune their offensive schemes, and the overall quarterback pool is being viewed as a tight‑knit group where a few percentage points can swing draft decisions.