A Predictive Snapshot of the 2026 Season
ESPN’s Football Power Index, or FPI, is a predictive model that gauges team strength and projects future outcomes. For the 2026 season, the index places Baylor University’s football program at No. 37 nationally with a 6.5 rating, projecting a 6.6‑5.5 win‑loss ledger.
That record translates into a 68.8% probability of securing a bowl berth, a 3.2% chance of capturing the Big 12 title and a 6% likelihood of earning a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff. The Bears sit amid a crowded conference where Texas Tech is the preseason favorite, holding a 45.9% chance of winning the league.
Other programs also feature in the rankings: BYU at No. 20, Utah at No. 31, Arizona at No. 34 and Houston at No. 35. The separation between them is razor‑thin, with only 0.6 points distinguishing Houston’s FPI from Baylor’s and TCU trailing by a tenth of a point at 6.4.
Such marginal differences mean that winning the close contests will be decisive. A handful of tightly contested games could push Baylor over the bowl threshold or keep it out of the championship conversation.
A key variable for the Bears is Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway, who arrives entering his first fully healthy collegiate preseason. His presence adds a new dimension to the offense and could be the catalyst that turns projected margins into actual victories.