A Season of Uncertainty
The 2026 Big 12 football season is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory, as the conference embraces a rare balance that leaves no clear favorite and opens the door for multiple playoff contenders.
Even BYU, which boasts a 23‑4 record over the past two seasons, has yet to break through to the College Football Playoff, underscoring how success on paper does not always translate into postseason glory.
The ripple effect is evident in the preseason AP rankings, where every team that finished in the top five a year ago has slipped considerably, setting the tone for a year of flux.
Texas Tech fell from No. 7 to No. 12, while BYU dropped from No. 11 to No. 14, reflecting the volatility that defines the league.
Yet the picture is not uniformly bleak; Texas Tech returns 13 starters and seven All‑Big 12 selections, and BYU retains 13 starters, including its starting quarterback, giving both programs a solid foundation.
Arizona stands out as a potential dark horse, anchored by quarterback Noah Fifita, who returns for his fourth season, and a deep backfield complemented by transfers DJ Jordan, Jordan Ross and Rodney Gallagher, while the defense showcases pro‑level talent in the secondary.
Arizona State is undergoing a rebuild after an 8‑5 finish and a Sun Bowl loss to Duke, with quarterback Sam Leavitt among the key pieces to replace.
Baylor’s 5‑7 record and missed postseason highlight ongoing struggles with quarterback turnover and a defense that ranked near the bottom in rushing yards and sacks.
Cincinnati and Colorado also face rebuilding challenges; the former needs to shore up a run defense and turnover rate, while the latter relies heavily on transfer quarterback Julian Lewis as the sole returning starter.
The broader narrative is reinforced by the conference’s history of six different champions in the past six seasons, a testament to a competitive landscape that rewards consistency and adaptability.