Boise State’s football program is entering the 2026 season with a buzz that belies its modest origins. ESPN’s Football Power Index, which previously placed the Broncos at No. 50, now projects a markedly brighter outlook, forecasting a 36.4 percent chance that the team will capture the Pac‑12 title and an 11 percent chance of securing a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Key Elements Behind the Optimism
At the heart of the offense are two dynamic running backs, Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, who combined for more than 1,900 yards and 21 touchdowns last season. Their ability to grind out tough yards will be crucial against stout Pac‑12 defenses. Complementing the ground game, quarterback Maddux Madsen brings a wealth of experience, having amassed 6,586 passing yards and 61 career touchdowns while posting a 20‑6 record as a starter.
Defensively, the Broncos boast a seasoned core that includes Jayden Virgin‑Morgan, Boen Phelps and Jaden Mickey. Virgin‑Morgan’s 120 career tackles, 16 sacks and three forced fumbles illustrate a relentless pass rush, while Phelps contributed 66 stops and Mickey added 38 tackles and five pass breakups in 2025. The continuity of these playmakers under head coach Spencer Danielson, who guided the team to two Mountain West championship victories, adds a stabilizing force amid the transition.
The broader landscape also favors Boise State. Several rival Group of Six programs are navigating coaching changes, potentially opening pathways for the Broncos to capitalize on weakened competition. Danielson’s proven track record in conference title games against UNLV further reinforces confidence that the team can navigate the rigors of Pac‑12 play.
If the early‑season test against Oregon yields a positive result, the momentum could carry the Broncos through a schedule that many analysts now view as winnable. The combination of a potent rushing attack, a veteran defense and steadfast coaching creates a compelling case that Boise State is poised not merely to compete, but to contend for a conference crown and perhaps a playoff berth.