When the Atlantic Coast Conference media days kicked off, the general consensus placed the California Golden Bears at the bottom of the league, projecting a 12th‑place finish that would mark another year of underachievement.
A Look at Recent Breakout Programs
History, however, shows that such lowly forecasts can be misleading. In recent memory, programs like Indiana, Arizona State, Vanderbilt and Virginia have all turned preseason obscurity into breakthrough seasons, often with just a first‑year head coach at the helm.
Indiana’s 2024 run is a case study. After being selected 17th in the Big Ten, the Hoosiers surged to an 8‑1 conference record, captured the conference title and earned a No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff, despite having won only two of the previous 30 league games just a few years earlier.
Arizona State’s transformation under head coach Kenny Dillingham illustrates a similar narrative. In his second season, Dillingham guided the Sun Devils from a 16th‑place preseason ranking to a championship and a top‑four playoff seed, echoing the rapid ascent seen at other mid‑tier programs.
Vanderbilt and Virginia followed comparable arcs. The Commodores, projected 13th in the SEC, finished 10‑3 overall and narrowly missed a top‑five conference finish, while the Cavaliers, picked 14th in the ACC, posted the best conference record at 7‑1, highlighted by three overtime victories.
What ties these stories together is the impact of a fresh coaching perspective. Tosh Lupoi’s first year at Cal produced modest improvements, and the upcoming season sees a new staff charged with maximizing the talent of quarterback Jaron‑Keawe Sagapolutele, who enters his second year as a starter.
The ACC landscape this year appears more open than usual. Cal will not face two of the three preseason AP top‑25 teams — Miami and Louisville — giving the Golden Bears a clearer path to accumulate wins.
Nevertheless, the competition remains formidable. While none of the aforementioned breakout teams received a single AP preseason national poll vote before their surprise, Cal managed to secure two voting points in the 2025 preseason poll, hinting at cautious optimism among voters.
If the pattern holds, Cal could join the ranks of those unexpected contenders, turning a projected 12th‑place finish into a legitimate threat for an ACC championship and a potential spot in the playoff conversation.