The Hot‑Seat Landscape
As the 2026 college football season approaches, the pressure on head coaches reaches a new intensity, with CBS Sports’ annual Hot‑Seat rankings painting a stark picture of job security across the Football Bowl Subdivision.
Three programs stand out for the most severe warnings: Florida State’s Mike Norvell, Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell and Baylor’s Dave Aranda each carry a perfect 5.0 rating, a score that signals that any misstep could trigger a swift dismissal.
Not far behind, Maryland’s Mike Locksley sits at a near‑unanimous 4.9, while South Carolina’s Shane Beamer and North Carolina’s Bill Belichick hold 4.3 and 4.1 respectively, placing them in a group that historically has been prone to turnover.
The data also reveals a troubling trend: five of the eight coaches whose ratings sit at 4.1 or higher were shown the door during or immediately after the previous season, a pattern that includes the exits of Hugh Freeze, Sam Pittman and Mike Gundy.
Yet the rankings are not a death sentence. Oklahoma’s Brent Venables and Arizona’s Brent Brennan have managed to lift their programs with strong performances, climbing out of the hot‑seat’s shadow through winning campaigns.
Brian Kelly’s midseason firing last year, despite a modest 3.33 rating, underscores how quickly confidence can evaporate, while James Franklin’s dismissal by Penn State came even though his preseason rating was a low 1.33.
Sonny Cumbie provides a contrasting narrative; after posting a 5.0 rating the prior year, he guided Louisiana Tech to a fourth‑place finish in Conference USA and a victory in the Independence Bowl, illustrating that a high rating can sometimes be a catalyst for resurgence.
The broader context shows that while more than half of the FBS remains in a stable configuration, the hot‑seat metric continues to be a barometer for coaches living on the edge, where a better rating does not guarantee future employment but a poor one often does.