The Numbers Behind the Swap
The New Jersey Devils entered the offseason with a clear objective: upgrade the crease without blowing up the salary cap. By moving Jacob Markstrom for a $6 million cap hit, the club cleared enough room to bring in David Rittich, Jake Allen and Nico Daws, each signed to inexpensive, short‑term deals.
What makes this maneuver intriguing is the league’s long‑standing pattern of extreme year‑to‑year swings in goaltender effectiveness. NHL analysts have repeatedly shown that a goalie’s GSAx/60 can flip from elite to sub‑par in a single season, turning a seemingly solid investment into a liability overnight.
The data bear this out. Over the past four seasons, 44 net‑minders transitioned from above‑average to below‑average GSAx/60 performance in consecutive years, and even established stars like Jordan Binnington have seen their metrics tumble from –0.16 to +0.30 to –0.58 within a short span.
Rittich’s own trajectory illustrates the risk. In 2023‑24 he posted a +0.921 SV% and +13.8 GSAx, only to dip to –0.886 SV% and –11.4 GSAx the following year before rebounding to +4.2 GSAx in 2025‑26. Allen, meanwhile, climbed from negative values in 2022‑24 to a +18.4 GSAx and .906 SV% in 2024‑25, staying above league average in the most recent season. Daws, though limited in NHL action, adds depth and the possibility of a breakout performance.
Taken together, the trio generated +8.72 GSAx in 2025‑26, a marked improvement over the –5.2 GSAx they posted the prior year. The move also left the Devils with $3.85 million in cap space, enough to react to underperformance or to pursue younger prospects such as Jakub Malek and Mikhail Yegorov down the line.
GM Sunny Mehta, whose career began as an options trader before he helmed the Florida Panthers, brings a risk‑assessment mindset to hockey decisions. He frames the goaltending shuffle as a calculated bet, one that accepts volatility in exchange for flexibility and financial breathing room.
The broader lesson resonates across the league: no goalie is a guaranteed safe investment, as evidenced by the ups and downs of stars like Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jeremy Swayman. For New Jersey, the three‑goalie system offers a way to stagger workloads and keep the net‑minding fresh, a strategy that could pay dividends if the numbers stay on an upward trajectory.