Duke entered the 2025 season as the Atlantic Coast Conference champion, riding a wave of momentum that had many analysts penciling them into the playoff conversation. Yet the latest projection from USA TODAY Sports paints a markedly different picture for the 2026 campaign.
A steep slide in the rankings
According to the model, the Blue Devils will tumble to 12th out of 17 teams, a drop that reflects both the loss of key contributors and the rise of competing programs. The projection also singles out Miami as a favorite to reclaim the conference crown, with former Duke quarterback Darian Mensah expected to spearhead the effort.
Miami’s anticipated resurgence is underscored by the expectation that the Hurricanes will return to the College Football Playoff, a stage they last visited a few years ago. The model cites Mensah’s experience as a decisive factor, noting his transition from Duke to Miami as a boost for the program’s offensive outlook.
Among the standouts for Duke, running back Nate Sheppard emerged as a bright spot, having posted a program‑record 1,132 yards and 11 touchdowns as a freshman last season. His production offers a glimpse of potential, even as the overall team outlook remains challenging.
The forecast also touches on the broader narrative of the ACC, where traditional powerhouses are being challenged by emerging contenders. Analysts suggest that the conference’s depth will make every Saturday a test of adaptability, especially for teams like Duke that must rebuild around a shifting roster.