Why the Early‑Round Crowd Is Cautious
Every draft season brings a chorus of optimism about the players who will be selected among the first few picks, with the expectation that their talent will translate into fantasy points that exceed their average draft position.
Christian McCaffrey, once a workhorse who commanded a massive share of his team's touches, now enters the conversation with a pedigree that includes a career‑high 311 carries and 102 receptions in the previous campaign, yet his production has begun to wobble.
His yards per carry slipped from 5.4 in 2023 to 3.9 in 2025, and a tightness issue forced him to miss the opening ten games of the 2025 season, underscoring how fragile his availability has become despite still being only 30 years old.
Josh Jacobs presents a similar paradox; at 28 he already boasts over 1,800 career carries and 2,100 total touches, but his efficiency metrics have been sliding, with yards per carry falling from 4.4 to 4.0 and yards per catch dropping from 9.5 to 7.8, while two injury absences last season have only amplified concerns about his durability.
Garrett Wilson, despite being projected as a WR1 on many competitive rosters, faces a different set of obstacles: the Jets' quarterback situation has deteriorated, and the team added several pass‑catching options, including Mitchell, Sadiq and Cooper Jr., which fragments target distribution and leaves Wilson with limited upside.
The broader implication is that the Jets' passing attack, already constrained by a declining signal‑caller like Geno Smith, may not generate enough volume to sustain multiple high‑priced receivers, making Wilson’s fantasy ceiling more vulnerable than his raw talent might suggest.