SportsLine’s latest projection for the 2026 fantasy football draft was generated by running 10,000 simulated NFL seasons, a process that strips away guesswork and isolates the statistical outliers most likely to disappoint.
The Simulation Behind the Rankings
Among the names that surfaced as clear busts are Malik Nabers, the New York Giants receiver who is slated to be drafted near the 34th overall pick, and Buffalo Bills running back James Cook, who is expected to be selected around the ninth spot.
Both players are projected to finish the season with career‑low receiving yards and rushing production respectively, a consequence of injury concerns for Nabers and a pattern of fumbles and limited target volume for Cook.
The model also flags Terry McLaurin as a bust for 2025, noting that despite a high average draft position he is likely to post the lowest yardage and touchdown totals of his career.
Analysts advise fantasy owners to pivot toward sleepers and rookie prospects, pointing to a handful of undervalued candidates who could outperform their ADP.
Veteran stars such as Josh Allen, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are projected to headline the upper tiers of draft boards, suggesting that experience still carries significant weight in most leagues.
The simulation’s track record lends credibility to these forecasts; it correctly identified A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020, captured Jonathan Taylor’s breakout in 2021 and highlighted C.J. Stroud’s dip in performance heading into 2024.